Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 208–222 House seats after the 2026 midterms?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$121.08

Smart Money Entry

91.2¢ → 97.2¢

+7% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,027

Combined PnL-$122.9

Yes1 trader

Total Value$3.56

Total Shares395

Combined PnL+$1.82

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 87.5¢	$773.89	$403.48	-$124.09	35% 17252-31838 (49090)
Istaroth	Noavg 95.6¢	$348.18	$312.29	-$12.4	16% 416-2177 (2593)
RememberAmalek<$100	Noavg 86.3¢	$64.59	$74.32	+$4.08	56% 975-774 (1749)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 92¢	$63.56	$67.18	+$3.62	60% 10613-7204 (17817)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$58.12	$58.32	+$0.2	53% 6092-5333 (11425)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 92¢	$42.14	$44.52	+$2.38	79% 10892-2961 (13853)
SP SpringlyFawl<$100	Noavg 91.9¢	$26.65	$28.19	+$1.54	30% 2217-5156 (7373)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100	Noavg 92¢	$18.4	$19.44	+$1.04	54% 6327-5482 (11809)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 91.9¢	$9.19	$9.93	+$0.74	43% 3021-3946 (6967)
GayPrideCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$1.74	$3.56	+$1.82	49% 357-367 (724)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$773.89

Value

$403.48

PnL

-$124.09

Record

35%

17252-31838 (49090)

Istaroth

Invested

$348.18

Value

$312.29

PnL

-$12.4

Record

16%

416-2177 (2593)

RememberAmalek<$100

Invested

$64.59

Value

$74.32

PnL

+$4.08

Record

56%

975-774 (1749)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$63.56

Value

$67.18

PnL

+$3.62

Record

60%

10613-7204 (17817)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$58.12

Value

$58.32

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

6092-5333 (11425)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$42.14

Value

$44.52

PnL

+$2.38

Record

79%

10892-2961 (13853)

SpringlyFawl<$100

Invested

$26.65

Value

$28.19

PnL

+$1.54

Record

30%

2217-5156 (7373)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100

Invested

$18.4

Value

$19.44

PnL

+$1.04

Record

54%

6327-5482 (11809)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$9.19

Value

$9.93

PnL

+$0.74

Record

43%

3021-3946 (6967)

GayPrideCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.74

Value

$3.56

PnL

+$1.82

Record

49%

357-367 (724)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.3%

97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.