Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 90¢ · $792 held · ends Nov 4

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$792.05

Combined PnL

$11.67

Smart Money Entry

89.5¢ → 90.1¢

+1% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 13 top traders (100%)12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$792.05

Total Shares844

Combined PnL+$11.67

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

134h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 89.2¢	$703.35	$339.11	+$9.67	35% 17137-31654 (48791)
RememberAmalek<$100	Noavg 87.7¢	$87.7	$91	+$1.85	56% 975-774 (1749)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 89.4¢	$61.82	$62.31	+$0.49	57% 8800-6747 (15547)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 90.4¢	$56.03	$55.89	-$0.14	17% 1044-5063 (6107)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 90.9¢	$54.56	$54.09	-$0.47	53% 6089-5328 (11417)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 89.5¢	$40.98	$41.29	+$0.31	79% 10865-2930 (13795)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 90.8¢	$41.12	$40.84	-$0.29	24% 285-886 (1171)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 89.8¢	$35.61	$35.74	+$0.13	61% 14032-8909 (22941)
SP SpringlyFawl<$100	Noavg 91¢	$26.39	$26.14	-$0.25	30% 2215-5153 (7368)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100	Noavg 89.7¢	$17.93	$18.03	+$0.1	54% 6316-5460 (11776)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89¢	$9.29	$9.5	+$0.21	57% 17499-13064 (30563)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 89.5¢	$8.95	$9.1	+$0.15	43% 2993-3895 (6888)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 91¢	$36.41	$9	-$0.1	52% 3218-2943 (6161)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$703.35

Value

$339.11

PnL

+$9.67

Record

35%

17137-31654 (48791)

RememberAmalek<$100

Invested

$87.7

Value

$91

PnL

+$1.85

Record

56%

975-774 (1749)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$61.82

Value

$62.31

PnL

+$0.49

Record

57%

8800-6747 (15547)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$56.03

Value

$55.89

PnL

-$0.14

Record

17%

1044-5063 (6107)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$54.56

Value

$54.09

PnL

-$0.47

Record

53%

6089-5328 (11417)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$40.98

Value

$41.29

PnL

+$0.31

Record

79%

10865-2930 (13795)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$41.12

Value

$40.84

PnL

-$0.29

Record

24%

285-886 (1171)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$35.61

Value

$35.74

PnL

+$0.13

Record

61%

14032-8909 (22941)

SpringlyFawl<$100

Invested

$26.39

Value

$26.14

PnL

-$0.25

Record

30%

2215-5153 (7368)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100

Invested

$17.93

Value

$18.03

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

6316-5460 (11776)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.29

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$0.21

Record

57%

17499-13064 (30563)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$8.95

Value

$9.1

PnL

+$0.15

Record

43%

2993-3895 (6888)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$36.41

Value

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

3218-2943 (6161)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 13 top traders (100%)12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

134h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.