Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 90¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.5K
$5.31
91.4¢ → 90¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 92¢ | $1.0K | $966.49 | +$11.75 | 53% 6405-5609 (12014) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 89.1¢ | $356.78 | $251.44 | -$5.34 | 36% 15094-27222 (42316) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 91.4¢ | $222.41 | $220 | -$1.06 | 23% 288-962 (1250) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 92.4¢ | $18.48 | $17.86 | -$0.62 | 18% 519-2318 (2837) |
 BigRabbitCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $2.39 | $5.69 | +$0.59 | 40% 700-1051 (1751) |
Invested
$1,010.58
Value
$966.49
PnL
+$11.75
Record
53%
6405-5609 (12014)
Invested
$356.78
Value
$251.44
PnL
-$5.34
Record
36%
15094-27222 (42316)
IstarothInvested
$222.41
Value
$220
PnL
-$1.06
Record
23%
288-962 (1250)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$18.48
Value
$17.86
PnL
-$0.62
Record
18%
519-2318 (2837)
BigRabbitCTR<$100Invested
$2.39
Value
$5.69
PnL
+$0.59
Record
40%
700-1051 (1751)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.