Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (91%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "Reminders of Him" be the top US Netflix movie this week?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 9.0¢ · $425 held · ends Nov 18

Yes91¢No9¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$424.51

Combined PnL

$268.16

Smart Money Entry

15.4¢ → 9¢

-41% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 91%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes91%

No9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$420.01

Total Shares751

Combined PnL+$264.32

Yes1 trader

Total Value$4.5

Total Shares9

Combined PnL+$3.84

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GaditimaCTR	Noavg 18¢	$181.15	$392.9	+$211.75	49% 273-288 (561)
dips.CTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$3.19	$8.86	+$5.67	47% 967-1091 (2058)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Noavg 16.5¢	$1.94	$5.88	+$3.94	50% 153-153 (306)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Noavg 6.7¢	$4.7	$4.9	+$0.2	34% 234-460 (694)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$4.16	$4.5	+$3.84	39% 3645-5777 (9422)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 3.2¢	$1.55	$3.38	+$1.83	43% 5075-6626 (11701)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Noavg 14.1¢	$40.19	$1.75	+$39.85	9% 14-145 (159)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$1.2	$1.4	+$0.2	29% 3186-7958 (11144)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$1.49	$0.94	+$0.88	36% 3768-6825 (10593)

GaditimaCTR

Invested

$181.15

Value

$392.9

PnL

+$211.75

Record

49%

273-288 (561)

dips.CTR<$100

Invested

$3.19

Value

$8.86

PnL

+$5.67

Record

47%

967-1091 (2058)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Invested

$1.94

Value

$5.88

PnL

+$3.94

Record

50%

153-153 (306)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.2

Record

34%

234-460 (694)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.16

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$3.84

Record

39%

3645-5777 (9422)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$1.55

Value

$3.38

PnL

+$1.83

Record

43%

5075-6626 (11701)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Invested

$40.19

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$39.85

Record

14-145 (159)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.2

Record

29%

3186-7958 (11144)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$1.49

Value

$0.94

PnL

+$0.88

Record

36%

3768-6825 (10593)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 91%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance10.4%

9.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$856.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

956.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.