Will "Reminders of Him" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 89¢ · $122 held · ends Nov 18

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$121.58

Combined PnL

-$15.03

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$106.35

Total Shares114

Combined PnL+$18.24

Yes4 traders

Total Value$15.17

Total Shares204

Combined PnL-$33.27

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima<$100	Noavg 49.7¢	$24.51	$38.37	+$18.06	48% 278-299 (577)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 92.3¢	$28.14	$28.34	+$0.2	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 93¢	$27.75	$27.75	+$0	29% 1113-2674 (3787)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 93¢	$10.11	$10.11	+$0	35% 290-535 (825)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.2¢	$40.5	$9.86	-$25.2	9% 14-145 (159)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$1.94	$2.38	+$0.44	39% 3661-5820 (9481)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Yesavg 32.7¢	$10.45	$2.24	-$8.21	50% 155-157 (312)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 90¢	$1.8	$1.78	-$0.02	61% 773-494 (1267)
dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$1	$0.7	-$0.3	47% 973-1108 (2081)

Gaditima<$100

Invested

$24.51

Value

$38.37

PnL

+$18.06

Record

48%

278-299 (577)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$28.14

Value

$28.34

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$27.75

Value

$27.75

PnL

+$0

Record

29%

1113-2674 (3787)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$10.11

Value

$10.11

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

290-535 (825)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.5

Value

$9.86

PnL

-$25.2

Record

14-145 (159)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.94

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.44

Record

39%

3661-5820 (9481)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.45

Value

$2.24

PnL

-$8.21

Record

50%

155-157 (312)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.78

PnL

-$0.02

Record

61%

773-494 (1267)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$0.3

Record

47%

973-1108 (2081)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.