Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 4-5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 70¢ · $324 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
1 arb excluded
$323.5
-$2.33
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 17.9¢ | $256.28 | $264.58 | +$86.62 | 36% 14598-26253 (40851) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 17.9¢ | $98.84 | $160.54 | +$86.88 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 63.8¢ | $93.49 | $104.04 | -$0.26 | |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 86.6¢ | $26.64 | $24.91 | -$1.73 | 61% 20530-12988 (33518) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $17.4 | $16.2 | -$1.2 | 18% 3771-16775 (20546) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $9.29 | $9.65 | +$0.36 | 42% 5180-7105 (12285) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $5.51 | $5 | -$0.51 | 32% 4312-9237 (13549) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $1.85 | $2.19 | +$0.34 | 46% 2730-3266 (5996) |
ME melonmanmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.9¢ | $0.56 | $0.99 | +$0.42 | 65% 483-260 (743) |
Invested
$256.28
Value
$264.58
PnL
+$86.62
Record
36%
14598-26253 (40851)
Both legs:
balthazar<$100Invested
$26.64
Value
$24.91
PnL
-$1.73
Record
61%
20530-12988 (33518)
2B9S<$100Invested
$17.4
Value
$16.2
PnL
-$1.2
Record
18%
3771-16775 (20546)
Invested
$9.29
Value
$9.65
PnL
+$0.36
Record
42%
5180-7105 (12285)
Invested
$5.51
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.51
Record
32%
4312-9237 (13549)
Invested
$1.85
Value
$2.19
PnL
+$0.34
Record
46%
2730-3266 (5996)
Invested
$0.56
Value
$0.99
PnL
+$0.42
Record
65%
483-260 (743)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.