Will "Raw: 2026" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $221 held · ends Nov 18

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$220.68

Combined PnL

-$13.42

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.7¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$219.81

Total Shares220

Combined PnL+$0.13

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.86

Total Shares288

Combined PnL-$13.55

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$94.91	$94.91	+$0	38% 334-535 (869)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$34.95	$34.99	+$0.04	53% 7612-6705 (14317)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.97	+$0.03	30% 1195-2736 (3931)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.97	+$0.03	29% 1121-2791 (3912)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.97	+$0.03	36% 378-681 (1059)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$5.06	$0.3	-$4.76	38% 3881-6344 (10225)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$4.55	$0.27	-$4.27	15% 39-214 (253)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$2.61	$0.16	-$2.45	43% 1137-1514 (2651)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$2.2	$0.13	-$2.06	42% 5253-7309 (12562)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$94.91

Value

$94.91

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

334-535 (869)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$34.95

Value

$34.99

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

7612-6705 (14317)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.03

Record

30%

1195-2736 (3931)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.03

Record

29%

1121-2791 (3912)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.03

Record

36%

378-681 (1059)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.06

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$4.76

Record

38%

3881-6344 (10225)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.55

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$4.27

Record

15%

39-214 (253)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.61

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$2.45

Record

43%

1137-1514 (2651)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$2.06

Record

42%

5253-7309 (12562)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.