Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 6m?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 91¢ · $291 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 29%
$290.57
$54.43
80.2¢ → 90.8¢
+13% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-9 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
21h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271 | Noavg 79.3¢ | $181.76 | $225.71 | +$43.95 | 26% 7398-21204 (28602) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $10.63 | $35.58 | -$38.19 | 52% 31247-29161 (60408) |
 clazzy1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.4¢ | $19.47 | $18.63 | -$0.84 | 65% 514-276 (790) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $48.43 | $5.92 | +$54.94 | 35% 19615-37161 (56776) |
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.3¢ | $3.16 | $3.04 | -$2.99 | 34% 2138-4091 (6229) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.3¢ | $3.98 | $0.76 | -$2.78 | 17% 1379-6720 (8099) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $83.01 | $0.41 | +$0.33 | 47% 10410-11903 (22313) |
Invested
$181.76
Value
$225.71
PnL
+$43.95
Record
26%
7398-21204 (28602)
balthazar<$100Invested
$10.63
Value
$35.58
PnL
-$38.19
Record
52%
31247-29161 (60408)
clazzy1CTR<$100Invested
$19.47
Value
$18.63
PnL
-$0.84
Record
65%
514-276 (790)
Invested
$48.43
Value
$5.92
PnL
+$54.94
Record
35%
19615-37161 (56776)
Invested
$3.16
Value
$3.04
PnL
-$2.99
Record
34%
2138-4091 (6229)
Invested
$3.98
Value
$0.76
PnL
-$2.78
Record
17%
1379-6720 (8099)
Invested
$83.01
Value
$0.41
PnL
+$0.33
Record
47%
10410-11903 (22313)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.