Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 75¢ · $766 held · ends Nov 8

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$766.08

Combined PnL

$704.98

Smart Money Entry

66.9¢ → 74.5¢

+11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$447.05

Total Shares627

Combined PnL+$473.77

Yes4 traders

Total Value$318.51

Total Shares1,126

Combined PnL+$231.2

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Noavg 73.7¢	$226.76	$218.31	-$8.45	26% 7406-21210 (28616)
SH shovelingdiggingCTR	Yesavg 20.8¢	$110.49	$213.11	+$102.62	62% 388-235 (623)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 77.3¢	$123.64	$113.6	-$10.04	53% 24327-21391 (45718)
JI jinsun...CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$47.99	$69.55	+$21.56	66% 299-157 (456)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 8.4¢	$63.87	$55	+$494.81	44% 2361-2972 (5333)
clazzy1<$100	Noavg 80.2¢	$43.66	$38.62	-$0.78	65% 514-277 (791)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.7¢	$65.94	$29.01	+$109.59	35% 19616-37164 (56780)
JO JordanMooney<$100	Noavg 66¢	$33.85	$19.38	-$1.97	34% 2138-4091 (6229)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$9.41	$6.84	-$2.57	28% 3025-7837 (10862)
VE VerilyWinningly<$100	Noavg 81¢	$1.94	$2.13	+$0.2	22% 378-1359 (1737)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Invested

$226.76

Value

$218.31

PnL

-$8.45

Record

26%

7406-21210 (28616)

shovelingdiggingCTR

Yes

Invested

$110.49

Value

$213.11

PnL

+$102.62

Record

62%

388-235 (623)

cigarettes

Invested

$123.64

Value

$113.6

PnL

-$10.04

Record

53%

24327-21391 (45718)

jinsun...CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.99

Value

$69.55

PnL

+$21.56

Record

66%

299-157 (456)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$63.87

Value

$55

PnL

+$494.81

Record

44%

2361-2972 (5333)

clazzy1<$100

Invested

$43.66

Value

$38.62

PnL

-$0.78

Record

65%

514-277 (791)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.94

Value

$29.01

PnL

+$109.59

Record

35%

19616-37164 (56780)

JordanMooney<$100

Invested

$33.85

Value

$19.38

PnL

-$1.97

Record

34%

2138-4091 (6229)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.41

Value

$6.84

PnL

-$2.57

Record

28%

3025-7837 (10862)

VerilyWinningly<$100

Invested

$1.94

Value

$2.13

PnL

+$0.2

Record

22%

378-1359 (1737)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.