Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 100¢ · $210 held · ends Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$210.01

Combined PnL

$42.7

Smart Money Entry

92.1¢ → 99.5¢

+8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$209.44

Total Shares210

Combined PnL+$50.36

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.56

Total Shares57

Combined PnL-$7.67

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Noavg 98.3¢	$187.19	$189.54	+$2.34	26% 7355-21119 (28474)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 33.5¢	$46.79	$19.9	+$48.02	52% 31016-29004 (60020)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.9¢	$6.37	$0.49	-$5.88	34% 19370-36924 (56294)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.2¢	$3.65	$0.05	-$1.21	17% 1358-6572 (7930)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 25.3¢	$15.22	$0.01	-$0.58	28% 2872-7382 (10254)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Invested

$187.19

Value

$189.54

PnL

+$2.34

Record

26%

7355-21119 (28474)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$46.79

Value

$19.9

PnL

+$48.02

Record

52%

31016-29004 (60020)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.37

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$5.88

Record

34%

19370-36924 (56294)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.65

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.21

Record

17%

1358-6572 (7930)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.22

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.58

Record

28%

2872-7382 (10254)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.