Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 9m?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (62%) · Yes at 57¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 8

Yes57¢No43¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$462.31

Smart Money Entry

68.9¢ → 57¢

-17% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes57%

No43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares4,918

Combined PnL+$685.99

No5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,639

Combined PnL-$223.68

Yes — 62%No — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5095e97281f28d4d8549fd3834802c24cbb793e	Yesavg 68.8¢	$1.5K	$2.2K	+$695.7	52% 312-284 (596)
TR troimCTR	Noavg 34.4¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	-$545	37% 414-718 (1132)
clazzy1CTR	Noavg 70.9¢	$723.41	$408.33	-$248.17	65% 514-277 (791)
Rex416	Yesavg 77.6¢	$323.87	$206.69	-$103.53	57% 2623-2005 (4628)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Noavg 42.6¢	$141.83	$133.25	-$8.58	26% 7407-21213 (28620)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Yesavg 68.4¢	$155.28	$112.12	+$112.5	35% 19622-37185 (56807)
└ No leg	Noavg 10.9¢	$21.96	$80.46	+$143.05
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 68.4¢	$43.75	$31.67	-$30.55
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 2¢	$18.6	$59.05	+$549.52	44% 2361-2972 (5333)
JI jinsun...CTR<$100	Noavg 23.7¢	$26.42	$54.97	+$28.55	66% 299-157 (456)
balthazar<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$90.12	$39.42	+$76.83	52% 31278-29168 (60446)
LU luciebot<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$17	$7.57	+$12.41	28% 3038-7860 (10898)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$3.44	$5.12	+$1.68	39% 1298-2033 (3331)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Yesavg 76.9¢	$50.77	$5.02	+$1.65	53% 4566-4056 (8622)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 86¢	$4.77	$4.58	-$0.19	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$2.95	$4.39	+$1.44	39% 1284-2050 (3334)

0x5095e97281f28d4d8549fd3834802c24cbb793e

Yes

Invested

$1,479.84

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$695.7

Record

52%

312-284 (596)

troimCTR

Invested

$1,032.62

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$545

Record

37%

414-718 (1132)

clazzy1CTR

Invested

$723.41

Value

$408.33

PnL

-$248.17

Record

65%

514-277 (791)

Rex416

Yes

Invested

$323.87

Value

$206.69

PnL

-$103.53

Record

57%

2623-2005 (4628)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Invested

$141.83

Value

$133.25

PnL

-$8.58

Record

26%

7407-21213 (28620)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$155.28

Value

$112.12

PnL

+$112.5

Record

35%

19622-37185 (56807)

Both legs:

No$21.9610.9¢+$143.05

Yes$43.7568.4¢-$30.55

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$18.6

Value

$59.05

PnL

+$549.52

Record

44%

2361-2972 (5333)

jinsun...CTR<$100

Invested

$26.42

Value

$54.97

PnL

+$28.55

Record

66%

299-157 (456)

balthazar<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.12

Value

$39.42

PnL

+$76.83

Record

52%

31278-29168 (60446)

luciebot<$100

Yes

Invested

$17

Value

$7.57

PnL

+$12.41

Record

28%

3038-7860 (10898)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.44

Value

$5.12

PnL

+$1.68

Record

39%

1298-2033 (3331)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.77

Value

$5.02

PnL

+$1.65

Record

53%

4566-4056 (8622)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.77

Value

$4.58

PnL

-$0.19

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.95

Value

$4.39

PnL

+$1.44

Record

39%

1284-2050 (3334)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.