Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (86%). 5 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 14¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$218.86

Smart Money Entry

44.6¢ → 14.2¢

-68% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$517.3

Total Shares511

Combined PnL+$44.7

Yes5 traders

Total Value$191.68

Total Shares1,240

Combined PnL-$263.55

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 79.1¢	$1.1K	$866.69	+$55.46	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
└ No leg	Noavg 79.1¢	$680.55	$685.32	-$81.12
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 16.2¢	$144.52	$181.37	+$136.57
archaic	Noavg 61.1¢	$223.95	$202.85	-$21.09	85% 1966-348 (2314)
Istaroth	Noavg 87¢	$220.33	$134.15	-$15.45	14% 461-2750 (3211)
LI linethCTR	Yesavg 45.6¢	$288.72	$114.9	-$173.82	43% 268-356 (624)
SI singularitymanCTR	Yesavg 47.1¢	$175.11	$67.12	-$107.99	41% 144-204 (348)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 85.4¢	$57.36	$57	-$0.36	18% 340-1570 (1910)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 89.6¢	$85.18	$38.16	+$7.8	77% 12289-3775 (16064)
CR cry.eth2<$100	Noavg 40.4¢	$9.4	$30.08	+$51.14	40% 9709-14605 (24314)
IN influenz.eth<$100	Noavg 48¢	$14.4	$25.41	+$11.01	42% 10352-14389 (24741)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 52¢	$13	$21.18	+$8.18	42% 3178-4309 (7487)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 50¢	$5	$8.47	+$3.47	49% 8836-9340 (18176)
JO JordanMooneyCTR	Yesavg 3.2¢	$452.82	$6.16	+$16.52	36% 2018-3600 (5618)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$3.06	+$1.24	20% 2587-10256 (12843)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yes	$0.43	$0.43	+$0.49	50% 135-137 (272)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$1,106.43

Value

$866.69

PnL

+$55.46

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

Both legs:

No$680.5579.1¢-$81.12

Yes$144.5216.2¢+$136.57

archaic

Invested

$223.95

Value

$202.85

PnL

-$21.09

Record

85%

1966-348 (2314)

Istaroth

Invested

$220.33

Value

$134.15

PnL

-$15.45

Record

14%

461-2750 (3211)

linethCTR

Yes

Invested

$288.72

Value

$114.9

PnL

-$173.82

Record

43%

268-356 (624)

singularitymanCTR

Yes

Invested

$175.11

Value

$67.12

PnL

-$107.99

Record

41%

144-204 (348)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$57.36

Value

$57

PnL

-$0.36

Record

18%

340-1570 (1910)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$85.18

Value

$38.16

PnL

+$7.8

Record

77%

12289-3775 (16064)

cry.eth2<$100

Invested

$9.4

Value

$30.08

PnL

+$51.14

Record

40%

9709-14605 (24314)

influenz.eth<$100

Invested

$14.4

Value

$25.41

PnL

+$11.01

Record

42%

10352-14389 (24741)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$13

Value

$21.18

PnL

+$8.18

Record

42%

3178-4309 (7487)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

Value

$8.47

PnL

+$3.47

Record

49%

8836-9340 (18176)

JordanMooneyCTR

Yes

Invested

$452.82

Value

$6.16

PnL

+$16.52

Record

36%

2018-3600 (5618)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$3.06

PnL

+$1.24

Record

20%

2587-10256 (12843)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.43

PnL

+$0.49

Record

50%

135-137 (272)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.9%

14.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$529.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

629.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.