Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 93¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.8K
-$128.54
91.8¢ → 93¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
1774h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 alanhutton | Noavg 92.1¢ | $3.6K | $2.6K | +$46.2 | 68% 330-156 (486) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 30.2¢ | $283.48 | $62.21 | -$196.27 | 36% 15601-27545 (43146) |
 XieGuangKun<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $22.68 | $32.3 | +$8.93 | 51% 367-349 (716) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $11.35 | $20.65 | +$9.3 | 47% 2035-2254 (4289) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 91¢ | $130.1 | $12 | +$3.3 | 59% 981-676 (1657) |
alanhuttonInvested
$3,612.88
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$46.2
Record
68%
330-156 (486)
Invested
$283.48
Value
$62.21
PnL
-$196.27
Record
36%
15601-27545 (43146)
XieGuangKun<$100Invested
$22.68
Value
$32.3
PnL
+$8.93
Record
51%
367-349 (716)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$11.35
Value
$20.65
PnL
+$9.3
Record
47%
2035-2254 (4289)
PaddyAlphaInvested
$130.1
Value
$12
PnL
+$3.3
Record
59%
981-676 (1657)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.