Will Ra'am win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$2.5K
-$141.38
98¢ → 98.4¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Noavg 98¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$92.86 | 74% 2701-970 (3671) |
 archaic | Noavg 97.5¢ | $315.36 | $301.77 | -$13.58 | 85% 1873-338 (2211) |
 balthazar | Noavg 98.4¢ | $192.15 | $182.27 | -$9.88 | 61% 20602-13057 (33659) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $81.92 | $80.55 | -$1.37 | 53% 6279-5507 (11786) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 12¢ | $111.71 | $50.5 | -$23.69 | 35% 14716-26896 (41612) |
viniiInvested
$1,936.16
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$92.86
Record
74%
2701-970 (3671)
archaicInvested
$315.36
Value
$301.77
PnL
-$13.58
Record
85%
1873-338 (2211)
balthazarInvested
$192.15
Value
$182.27
PnL
-$9.88
Record
61%
20602-13057 (33659)
Invested
$81.92
Value
$80.55
PnL
-$1.37
Record
53%
6279-5507 (11786)
Invested
$111.71
Value
$50.5
PnL
-$23.69
Record
35%
14716-26896 (41612)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.