Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 60¢ · $145 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$144.61
$38.14
Research grade
NeutralYes at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 32.9¢ | $40.26 | $53.66 | +$15.58 | 30% 277-652 (929) |
ME melonmanmCTR<$100 | Noavg 49.9¢ | $49.9 | $40.4 | -$9.5 | 65% 483-260 (743) |
 Nadmi<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.82 | $38.75 | +$29.72 | 47% 2029-2245 (4274) |
CO Contestable-Parfait<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $9.47 | $11.8 | +$2.34 | 36% 8-14 (22) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.