Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (89%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Ra'am win 8 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 11¢ · $345 held · ends Nov 30
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$344.79
-$232.45
13.6¢ → 10.7¢
-21% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 11%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 mr.oziCTR | Yesavg 13.6¢ | $366.13 | $205.64 | -$160.5 | 69% 1231-562 (1793) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 84.4¢ | $67.52 | $73.36 | +$5.84 | 42% 5192-7111 (12303) |
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.8¢ | $55.2 | $30.6 | -$24.6 | 39% 9-14 (23) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 84.6¢ | $485.99 | $28.2 | -$59.54 | 53% 6290-5520 (11810) |
 cambridgeisaacCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.6¢ | $0.65 | $7 | +$6.35 | 57% 1102-821 (1923) |
mr.oziCTRInvested
$366.13
Value
$205.64
PnL
-$160.5
Record
69%
1231-562 (1793)
Invested
$67.52
Value
$73.36
PnL
+$5.84
Record
42%
5192-7111 (12303)
Invested
$55.2
Value
$30.6
PnL
-$24.6
Record
39%
9-14 (23)
Invested
$485.99
Value
$28.2
PnL
-$59.54
Record
53%
6290-5520 (11810)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100Invested
$0.65
Value
$7
PnL
+$6.35
Record
57%
1102-821 (1923)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
10.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.