Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Slovakia?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 98¢ · $417 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$417
$0.09
99.8¢ → 98¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12 123987456 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $280.13 | $278.45 | -$1.68 | 45% 1830-2273 (4103) |
AL alex20011 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $112.48 | $111.81 | -$0.68 | 48% 3423-3707 (7130) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $21.88 | $21.77 | -$0.11 | 57% 13319-10177 (23496) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $2.17 | $3.01 | +$0.84 | 36% 15021-27071 (42092) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.67 | $2.4 | +$1.73 | 18% 3784-17100 (20884) |
Invested
$280.13
Value
$278.45
PnL
-$1.68
Record
45%
1830-2273 (4103)
Invested
$112.48
Value
$111.81
PnL
-$0.68
Record
48%
3423-3707 (7130)
Invested
$21.88
Value
$21.77
PnL
-$0.11
Record
57%
13319-10177 (23496)
Invested
$2.17
Value
$3.01
PnL
+$0.84
Record
36%
15021-27071 (42092)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0.67
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$1.73
Record
18%
3784-17100 (20884)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.