Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in China?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $488 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$488
-$5.55
99.3¢ → 97.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12 123987456 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $280.13 | $273.79 | -$6.34 | 45% 1817-2262 (4079) |
AL alex20011 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $112.03 | $109.5 | -$2.54 | 48% 3417-3692 (7109) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $68.77 | $67.8 | -$0.97 | 61% 20651-13088 (33739) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $29.79 | $29.15 | -$0.64 | 46% 2738-3276 (6014) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $3.09 | $8.04 | +$4.95 | 35% 14814-26946 (41760) |
Invested
$280.13
Value
$273.79
PnL
-$6.34
Record
45%
1817-2262 (4079)
Invested
$112.03
Value
$109.5
PnL
-$2.54
Record
48%
3417-3692 (7109)
balthazar<$100Invested
$68.77
Value
$67.8
PnL
-$0.97
Record
61%
20651-13088 (33739)
Invested
$29.79
Value
$29.15
PnL
-$0.64
Record
46%
2738-3276 (6014)
Invested
$3.09
Value
$8.04
PnL
+$4.95
Record
35%
14814-26946 (41760)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.