Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Austria?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $466 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$466
-$1.9
99.6¢ → 98.6¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12 123987456 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $280.13 | $279.57 | -$0.56 | 45% 1830-2273 (4103) |
AL alex20011 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $112.26 | $112.03 | -$0.23 | 48% 3423-3707 (7130) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $69.57 | $69.29 | -$0.28 | 61% 20778-13190 (33968) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $4.98 | $4.97 | -$0.01 | 57% 13319-10177 (23496) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $1.33 | $0.51 | -$0.82 | 36% 15021-27071 (42092) |
Invested
$280.13
Value
$279.57
PnL
-$0.56
Record
45%
1830-2273 (4103)
Invested
$112.26
Value
$112.03
PnL
-$0.23
Record
48%
3423-3707 (7130)
balthazar<$100Invested
$69.57
Value
$69.29
PnL
-$0.28
Record
61%
20778-13190 (33968)
Invested
$4.98
Value
$4.97
PnL
-$0.01
Record
57%
13319-10177 (23496)
Invested
$1.33
Value
$0.51
PnL
-$0.82
Record
36%
15021-27071 (42092)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.