Will Puerto Rico win Miss Universe 2026?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 84¢ · $162 held · ends Nov 25
⚠️
Avoid
No
3
No 100%
$161.57
$7.74
78.5¢ → 84¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 84%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 79.9¢ | $127.29 | $133.78 | +$6.49 | 40% 3003-4412 (7415) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $20.26 | $20.56 | +$0.3 | 16% 10-54 (64) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $6.28 | $7.22 | +$0.95 | 35% 2903-5326 (8229) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.