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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 84¢ · $380 held · ends Feb 15, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$380.48
-$43.94
81¢ → 84¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 81¢ | $294.17 | $307.59 | +$13.42 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
 HoshinoAICTR | Yesavg 23.8¢ | $385.72 | $50.39 | -$58.91 | 48% 10-11 (21) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 79.5¢ | $7.95 | $8.6 | +$0.65 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $8 | $8.6 | +$0.6 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $5 | $5.3 | +$0.3 | 4% 1-24 (25) |
Invested
$294.17
Value
$307.59
PnL
+$13.42
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
HoshinoAICTRInvested
$385.72
Value
$50.39
PnL
-$58.91
Record
48%
10-11 (21)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$7.95
Value
$8.6
PnL
+$0.65
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$8
Value
$8.6
PnL
+$0.6
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$5
Value
$5.3
PnL
+$0.3
Record
4%
1-24 (25)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.