Will "Public Service Announcement" be played first at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 66¢ · $3K held · ends Feb 15, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.8K
$38.25
64.6¢ → 65.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xdc3E831cad | Noavg 64¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$30.54 | 0% 0-52 (52) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 65¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$10 | 66% 4092-2111 (6203) |
 HoshinoAICTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $99.25 | $95.12 | -$4.14 | 48% 10-11 (21) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.1¢ | $30.65 | $36.82 | +$6.17 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $21.6 | $17.28 | -$4.32 | 4% 1-24 (25) |
0xdc3E831cadInvested
$1,302.85
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$30.54
Record
0%
0-52 (52)
Invested
$1,300
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$10
Record
66%
4092-2111 (6203)
HoshinoAICTR<$100Invested
$99.25
Value
$95.12
PnL
-$4.14
Record
48%
10-11 (21)
Invested
$30.65
Value
$36.82
PnL
+$6.17
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
Invested
$21.6
Value
$17.28
PnL
-$4.32
Record
4%
1-24 (25)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.