Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will PSOE win the second-most seats in Toledo in the 2026 Spanish general election?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 42¢ · $410 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
1 arb excluded
$409.53
-$63.1
58.5¢ → 41.5¢
-29% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 65.1¢ | $233.89 | $181.12 | -$52.77 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65.1¢ | $196.15 | $135.51 | -$60.64 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 33.9¢ | $37.74 | $45.61 | +$7.87 | |
 HaradwaithCTR | Noavg 62.6¢ | $210.87 | $151.63 | -$59.24 | 51% 40-38 (78) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Noavg 46.8¢ | $35.1 | $31.88 | -$3.23 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $25.01 | $26.26 | +$1.25 | 12% 22-156 (178) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $9.22 | $8.7 | -$0.51 | 39% 1309-2008 (3317) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $9.8 | $8.5 | -$1.3 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $1.38 | $1.3 | -$0.08 | 37% 3224-5382 (8606) |
Invested
$233.89
Value
$181.12
PnL
-$52.77
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
Both legs:
HaradwaithCTRInvested
$210.87
Value
$151.63
PnL
-$59.24
Record
51%
40-38 (78)
Invested
$35.1
Value
$31.88
PnL
-$3.23
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$25.01
Value
$26.26
PnL
+$1.25
Record
12%
22-156 (178)
Invested
$9.22
Value
$8.7
PnL
-$0.51
Record
39%
1309-2008 (3317)
Invested
$9.8
Value
$8.5
PnL
-$1.3
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$1.38
Value
$1.3
PnL
-$0.08
Record
37%
3224-5382 (8606)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.