Will PSOE win the most seats in León in the 2026 Spanish general election?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 85¢ · $445 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$444.62
-$25.5
85.4¢ → 85¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27 | Noavg 84.8¢ | $156.23 | $148.33 | -$7.91 | 28% 826-2133 (2959) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 86¢ | $129 | $120.75 | -$8.25 | 35% 2903-5326 (8229) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $93.5 | $88.55 | -$4.95 | 50% 4490-4436 (8926) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $59.51 | $55.06 | -$4.45 | 44% 1068-1376 (2444) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $21.25 | $21.63 | +$0.38 | 40% 3003-4412 (7415) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $10.62 | $10.3 | -$0.32 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
Invested
$156.23
Value
$148.33
PnL
-$7.91
Record
28%
826-2133 (2959)
LucerysInvested
$129
Value
$120.75
PnL
-$8.25
Record
35%
2903-5326 (8229)
balthazar<$100Invested
$93.5
Value
$88.55
PnL
-$4.95
Record
50%
4490-4436 (8926)
Invested
$59.51
Value
$55.06
PnL
-$4.45
Record
44%
1068-1376 (2444)
Invested
$21.25
Value
$21.63
PnL
+$0.38
Record
40%
3003-4412 (7415)
Invested
$10.62
Value
$10.3
PnL
-$0.32
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.