Will Project Hail Mary win Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 69¢ · $513 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$513.21
$13.92
66.2¢ → 68.5¢
+4% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 59.4¢ | $175 | $200.35 | +$25.35 | 40% 2992-4404 (7396) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 75¢ | $167.71 | $152.05 | -$15.65 | — 3-6 (9) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $62.04 | $64.94 | +$2.9 | 35% 2848-5314 (8162) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 65.4¢ | $49.05 | $51 | +$1.95 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $33.72 | $30.57 | -$3.15 | — 1-9 (10) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $5.07 | $6.59 | +$1.52 | 39% 1043-1626 (2669) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $4.3 | $4.3 | +$0 | 50% 4474-4422 (8896) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 47.9¢ | $2.4 | $3.4 | +$1 | 38% 1190-1979 (3169) |
Invested
$175
Value
$200.35
PnL
+$25.35
Record
40%
2992-4404 (7396)
HaradwaithInvested
$167.71
Value
$152.05
PnL
-$15.65
Record
—
3-6 (9)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$62.04
Value
$64.94
PnL
+$2.9
Record
35%
2848-5314 (8162)
Invested
$49.05
Value
$51
PnL
+$1.95
Record
26%
888-2504 (3392)
Invested
$33.72
Value
$30.57
PnL
-$3.15
Record
—
1-9 (10)
Invested
$5.07
Value
$6.59
PnL
+$1.52
Record
39%
1043-1626 (2669)
balthazar<$100Invested
$4.3
Value
$4.3
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
4474-4422 (8896)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$3.4
PnL
+$1
Record
38%
1190-1979 (3169)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.