Will Project Hail Mary get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (54%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 54%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$71.54

Smart Money Entry

96.3¢ → 100¢

+4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,164

Combined PnL+$98.35

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.26

Total Shares755

Combined PnL-$26.81

No — 54%Yes — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Noavg 95.2¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$94.21	50% 1278-1291 (2569)
ME merod	Noavg 99.3¢	$650.48	$653.04	+$2.55	43% 3133-4188 (7321)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 97.5¢	$185.27	$189.43	+$4.16	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
KO korda77	Noavg 99.5¢	$139.48	$139.76	+$0.28	44% 6482-8172 (14654)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$58.81	$58.69	-$0.12	33% 456-938 (1394)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 78.4¢	$28.75	$25.97	-$2.78	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$19.9	$19.94	+$0.04	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yes	$9.99	$1.08	-$17.52	61% 15934-10208 (26142)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yes	$0.59	$0.59	-$8.91	39% 5666-8726 (14392)
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.19	$0.34	+$2.06	40% 9714-14610 (24324)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$1.6	$0.15	-$1.45	18% 4284-20059 (24343)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.1¢	$1.05	$0.06	-$0.99	77% 12312-3779 (16091)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.04	$0.03	-$0.01	58% 19471-14317 (33788)

SnapElectionAvoider

Invested

$1,973.62

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$94.21

Record

50%

1278-1291 (2569)

merod

Invested

$650.48

Value

$653.04

PnL

+$2.55

Record

43%

3133-4188 (7321)

smallreceipt

Invested

$185.27

Value

$189.43

PnL

+$4.16

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

korda77

Invested

$139.48

Value

$139.76

PnL

+$0.28

Record

44%

6482-8172 (14654)

akroll<$100

Invested

$58.81

Value

$58.69

PnL

-$0.12

Record

33%

456-938 (1394)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$28.75

Value

$25.97

PnL

-$2.78

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$19.9

Value

$19.94

PnL

+$0.04

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.99

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$17.52

Record

61%

15934-10208 (26142)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.59

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$8.91

Record

39%

5666-8726 (14392)

cry.eth2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.34

PnL

+$2.06

Record

40%

9714-14610 (24324)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.6

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$1.45

Record

18%

4284-20059 (24343)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.99

Record

77%

12312-3779 (16091)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.