Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.8K
$15.27
86.9¢ → 99.2¢
+14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DO Dokkl | Yesavg 83.3¢ | $930 | $1.0K | +$119.12 | — |
 Parz1vaI | Yesavg 93¢ | $554.13 | $572.75 | +$6.1 | 72% 3486-1330 (4816) |
JI jiafan | Yesavg 89¢ | $137.94 | $144.11 | +$1.94 | 59% 1454-1018 (2472) |
TR troimCTR | Noavg 14.3¢ | $155.05 | $59.39 | -$95.66 | 36% 383-680 (1063) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 14.9¢ | $93.35 | $16.69 | -$16.23 | 36% 14842-26964 (41806) |
Invested
$930
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$119.12
Record
—
Parz1vaIInvested
$554.13
Value
$572.75
PnL
+$6.1
Record
72%
3486-1330 (4816)
Invested
$137.94
Value
$144.11
PnL
+$1.94
Record
59%
1454-1018 (2472)
Invested
$155.05
Value
$59.39
PnL
-$95.66
Record
36%
383-680 (1063)
Invested
$93.35
Value
$16.69
PnL
-$16.23
Record
36%
14842-26964 (41806)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.