Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 95¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$3.3K
$274.99
88¢ → 95.2¢
+8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 archaic | Noavg 90.2¢ | $2.2K | $2.3K | +$54.62 | 85% 1868-338 (2206) |
 Donny.T | Noavg 81¢ | $377 | $475.5 | +$98.5 | 72% 476-183 (659) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 91.2¢ | $338.42 | $352.73 | +$12.83 | 77% 11055-3381 (14436) |
 balthazar | Noavg 72¢ | $360 | $180.69 | +$114.28 | 61% 20509-12859 (33368) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.5¢ | $24.72 | $19.15 | -$5.56 | 36% 14556-26000 (40556) |
BA balerinacapuchina<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $4.99 | $5.31 | +$0.32 | 73% 176-66 (242) |
archaicInvested
$2,248.24
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$54.62
Record
85%
1868-338 (2206)
Donny.TInvested
$377
Value
$475.5
PnL
+$98.5
Record
72%
476-183 (659)
Invested
$338.42
Value
$352.73
PnL
+$12.83
Record
77%
11055-3381 (14436)
balthazarInvested
$360
Value
$180.69
PnL
+$114.28
Record
61%
20509-12859 (33368)
Invested
$24.72
Value
$19.15
PnL
-$5.56
Record
36%
14556-26000 (40556)
Invested
$4.99
Value
$5.31
PnL
+$0.32
Record
73%
176-66 (242)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.