Will PPI YoY be 6.4% in October?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 78¢ · $720 held · ends Nov 14

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$720.2

Combined PnL

$91.29

Smart Money Entry

85.1¢ → 78.5¢

-8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$389.04

Total Shares487

Combined PnL-$24.53

Yes4 traders

Total Value$331.16

Total Shares1,592

Combined PnL+$115.83

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

70h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 82.6¢	$266.93	$248.47	-$18.46	34% 19523-37138 (56661)
YoungAlphaGoatCTR	Yesavg 10¢	$91.55	$213.8	+$122.25	49% 556-582 (1138)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$45.7	$88.36	-$7.11	47% 1360-1505 (2865)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 91.1¢	$49.75	$54.6	+$4.85	17% 4523-22221 (26744)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 89.9¢	$45.85	$39.19	-$3.95	17% 404-2027 (2431)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 90.5¢	$34.39	$29.15	-$5.24	17% 1377-6690 (8067)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.6¢	$14.43	$26.27	+$0.52	47% 4103-4657 (8760)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 87.2¢	$18.32	$16.46	-$1.86	58% 21569-15650 (37219)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.8¢	$1.23	$2.73	+$0.16	26% 7392-21195 (28587)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 68.2¢	$1.04	$1.17	+$0.13	27% 652-1750 (2402)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$266.93

Value

$248.47

PnL

-$18.46

Record

34%

19523-37138 (56661)

YoungAlphaGoatCTR

Yes

Invested

$91.55

Value

$213.8

PnL

+$122.25

Record

49%

556-582 (1138)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.7

Value

$88.36

PnL

-$7.11

Record

47%

1360-1505 (2865)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$49.75

Value

$54.6

PnL

+$4.85

Record

17%

4523-22221 (26744)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$45.85

Value

$39.19

PnL

-$3.95

Record

17%

404-2027 (2431)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$34.39

Value

$29.15

PnL

-$5.24

Record

17%

1377-6690 (8067)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.43

Value

$26.27

PnL

+$0.52

Record

47%

4103-4657 (8760)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$18.32

Value

$16.46

PnL

-$1.86

Record

58%

21569-15650 (37219)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.23

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.16

Record

26%

7392-21195 (28587)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.17

PnL

+$0.13

Record

27%

652-1750 (2402)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

70h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.