Will PP win the most seats in Santa Cruz de Tenerife in the 2026 Spanish general election?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 59¢ · $306 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 50%
$305.69
$20.7
63.5¢ → 59¢
-7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 65.9¢ | $141.23 | $125.35 | -$15.88 | 40% 3363-5001 (8364) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Yesavg 66¢ | $92.97 | $81.7 | -$11.27 | 36% 85-149 (234) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $25.5 | $33 | +$7.5 | 28% 987-2588 (3575) |
FB fbetCTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $24.11 | $29.47 | +$5.36 | — 0-1 (1) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Noavg 27.6¢ | $10.14 | $13.25 | +$3.11 | 31% 155-351 (506) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | $11.05 | $10.67 | -$0.38 | 24% 90-278 (368) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $6.41 | $7.2 | +$30.72 | 36% 3534-6183 (9717) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $3.5 | $5.04 | +$1.54 | 53% 6319-5588 (11907) |
Invested
$141.23
Value
$125.35
PnL
-$15.88
Record
40%
3363-5001 (8364)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$92.97
Value
$81.7
PnL
-$11.27
Record
36%
85-149 (234)
Invested
$25.5
Value
$33
PnL
+$7.5
Record
28%
987-2588 (3575)
Invested
$24.11
Value
$29.47
PnL
+$5.36
Record
—
0-1 (1)
Invested
$10.14
Value
$13.25
PnL
+$3.11
Record
31%
155-351 (506)
Invested
$11.05
Value
$10.67
PnL
-$0.38
Record
24%
90-278 (368)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$6.41
Value
$7.2
PnL
+$30.72
Record
36%
3534-6183 (9717)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$5.04
PnL
+$1.54
Record
53%
6319-5588 (11907)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.