Will PP win the most seats in Jaén in the 2026 Spanish general election?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 79¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 30

Yes79¢No21¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$100.98

Smart Money Entry

67.6¢ → 78.5¢

+16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes79%

No22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$868.5

Total Shares1,106

Combined PnL+$127.51

No6 traders

Total Value$138.4

Total Shares644

Combined PnL-$26.53

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	Yesavg 74.9¢	$409.39	$428.78	+$19.4	54% 14-12 (26)
musicenthusiast	Yesavg 58.7¢	$231.05	$309.1	+$78.05	59% 448-308 (756)
HaradwaithCTR	Noavg 28.1¢	$881.96	$117.33	-$35.85	41% 6357-9331 (15688)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 61.7¢	$83.79	$106.69	+$22.9	35% 18725-34748 (53473)
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$103.27	$101.85	-$0.49	14% 503-3047 (3550)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58¢	$59.1	$79.95	+$20.8
└ No leg	Noavg 42.3¢	$43.1	$21.9	-$21.28
LornaPredicts<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$45.27	$23.93	+$7.17	20% 2762-10914 (13676)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$10	$8.6	-$1.4	25% 1740-5344 (7084)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$67.4	$4.3	-$3.3	17% 1282-6085 (7367)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$5	$4.3	-$0.7	18% 357-1657 (2014)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$6.73	$2.58	+$14.45	49% 8958-9484 (18442)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$1.02	$1.29	+$0.27	47% 8465-9653 (18118)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Yes

Invested

$409.39

Value

$428.78

PnL

+$19.4

Record

54%

14-12 (26)

musicenthusiast

Yes

Invested

$231.05

Value

$309.1

PnL

+$78.05

Record

59%

448-308 (756)

HaradwaithCTR

Invested

$881.96

Value

$117.33

PnL

-$35.85

Record

41%

6357-9331 (15688)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$83.79

Value

$106.69

PnL

+$22.9

Record

35%

18725-34748 (53473)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$103.27

Value

$101.85

PnL

-$0.49

Record

14%

503-3047 (3550)

Both legs:

Invested

$45.27

Value

$23.93

PnL

+$7.17

Record

20%

2762-10914 (13676)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$8.6

PnL

-$1.4

Record

25%

1740-5344 (7084)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$67.4

Value

$4.3

PnL

-$3.3

Record

17%

1282-6085 (7367)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$4.3

PnL

-$0.7

Record

18%

357-1657 (2014)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$6.73

Value

$2.58

PnL

+$14.45

Record

49%

8958-9484 (18442)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Invested

$1.02

Value

$1.29

PnL

+$0.27

Record

47%

8465-9653 (18118)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.2%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.