Will "Power: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $265 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$265.05
-$9.48
99.9¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Mature
41h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $94.91 | $94.91 | +$0 | 42% 1713-2335 (4048) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $59.88 | $59.94 | +$0.06 | 38% 329-526 (855) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $34.95 | $34.96 | +$0 | 53% 7560-6672 (14232) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $65 | $32.86 | -$4.92 | 38% 3857-6319 (10176) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.93 | $29.97 | +$0.04 | 30% 1189-2734 (3923) |
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $12.27 | $12.27 | -$0 | 60% 929-631 (1560) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $2.61 | $0.08 | -$2.53 | 43% 1137-1514 (2651) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $2.2 | $0.07 | -$2.13 | 42% 5250-7286 (12536) |
Invested
$94.91
Value
$94.91
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
1713-2335 (4048)
Invested
$59.88
Value
$59.94
PnL
+$0.06
Record
38%
329-526 (855)
Invested
$34.95
Value
$34.96
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
7560-6672 (14232)
Invested
$65
Value
$32.86
PnL
-$4.92
Record
38%
3857-6319 (10176)
Invested
$29.93
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0.04
Record
30%
1189-2734 (3923)
Invested
$12.27
Value
$12.27
PnL
-$0
Record
60%
929-631 (1560)
Invested
$2.61
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$2.53
Record
43%
1137-1514 (2651)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$2.2
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$2.13
Record
42%
5250-7286 (12536)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.