Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.9¢ · $87 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$87.28

Combined PnL

-$90.23

Smart Money Entry

0.8¢ → 0.9¢

+17% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$87.27

Total Shares21,197

Combined PnL-$90.23

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

119h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$42.53	$74.33	+$33.04	41% 2188-3126 (5314)
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$16.31	$9.71	-$6.6	44% 516-666 (1182)
thefakenickCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$43.01	$1.48	-$41.87	51% 949-928 (1877)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$71.59	$0.92	-$64.57	50% 2630-2578 (5208)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.74	$0.37	-$0.37	19% 2981-12794 (15775)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$7.38	$0.23	-$7.16	44% 13945-17925 (31870)
CR crckrCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.27	$0.13	-$0.14	28% 797-2091 (2888)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.15	$0.07	-$1.84	34% 2142-4117 (6259)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$0.65	$0.02	-$0.63	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.02	$0.02	+$0	16% 4635-23687 (28322)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$0.09	$0	-$0.08	55% 39043-31788 (70831)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.53

Value

$74.33

PnL

+$33.04

Record

41%

2188-3126 (5314)

0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.31

Value

$9.71

PnL

-$6.6

Record

44%

516-666 (1182)

thefakenickCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.01

Value

$1.48

PnL

-$41.87

Record

51%

949-928 (1877)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.59

Value

$0.92

PnL

-$64.57

Record

50%

2630-2578 (5208)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.74

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$0.37

Record

19%

2981-12794 (15775)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.38

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$7.16

Record

44%

13945-17925 (31870)

crckrCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.14

Record

28%

797-2091 (2888)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$1.84

Record

34%

2142-4117 (6259)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.63

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$0

Record

16%

4635-23687 (28322)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

PnL

-$0.08

Record

55%

39043-31788 (70831)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

119h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.0%

0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4917.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

5017.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.