Will PNV win the most seats in Biscay in the 2026 Spanish general election?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 75¢ · $217 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$217.13
-$2.34
75.3¢ → 74.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith | Noavg 76.5¢ | $122.4 | $119.2 | -$3.2 | — 8-8 (16) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 71.2¢ | $52.23 | $54.72 | +$2.49 | 40% 3001-4411 (7412) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $29.64 | $28.31 | -$1.33 | — 1-10 (11) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $15.2 | $14.9 | -$0.3 | 52% 5288-4799 (10087) |
HaradwaithInvested
$122.4
Value
$119.2
PnL
-$3.2
Record
—
8-8 (16)
Invested
$52.23
Value
$54.72
PnL
+$2.49
Record
40%
3001-4411 (7412)
Invested
$29.64
Value
$28.31
PnL
-$1.33
Record
—
1-10 (11)
Invested
$15.2
Value
$14.9
PnL
-$0.3
Record
52%
5288-4799 (10087)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.