Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will [Placeholder A] win the 2027 Ballon d'Or?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 3.1¢ · $372 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$372.27

Combined PnL

$367.31

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$372.27

Total Shares1,370

Combined PnL+$367.31

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northstockCTR	Yesavg 0.5¢	$1.07	$100	+$98.93	36% 266-463 (729)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.57	$83.48	+$82.91	43% 18729-24498 (43227)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.01	$60.32	+$60.31	30% 35523-84044 (119567)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yes	$48.5	$48.5	+$48.5	37% 16949-29332 (46281)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.43	$29.5	+$29.07	57% 41574-31333 (72907)
GD gdime27CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$2.8	$22.11	+$19.31	39% 245-382 (627)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.07	$12.8	+$12.73	62% 35968-22491 (58459)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yes	$5	$5	+$5	32% 21967-45855 (67822)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$5	+$5	47% 47657-54243 (101900)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yes	$4.77	$4.77	+$4.77	22% 657-2370 (3027)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yes	$0.79	$0.79	+$0.79	35% 1183-2186 (3369)

northstockCTR

Yes

Invested

$1.07

Value

$100

PnL

+$98.93

Record

36%

266-463 (729)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$83.48

PnL

+$82.91

Record

43%

18729-24498 (43227)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$60.32

PnL

+$60.31

Record

30%

35523-84044 (119567)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.5

Value

$48.5

PnL

+$48.5

Record

37%

16949-29332 (46281)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$29.5

PnL

+$29.07

Record

57%

41574-31333 (72907)

gdime27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.8

Value

$22.11

PnL

+$19.31

Record

39%

245-382 (627)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$12.8

PnL

+$12.73

Record

62%

35968-22491 (58459)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$5

Record

32%

21967-45855 (67822)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$5

Record

47%

47657-54243 (101900)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.77

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$4.77

Record

22%

657-2370 (3027)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.79

Value

$0.79

PnL

+$0.79

Record

35%

1183-2186 (3369)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.3%

3.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2199.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

2299.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.