Will Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 96¢ · $289 held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$288.57
-$23.17
97.8¢ → 95.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IN influenz.eth | Noavg 97.6¢ | $624.09 | $125.92 | -$3.87 | 42% 9966-13874 (23840) |
CR cry.eth2 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $108.08 | $104.81 | -$3.27 | 40% 9458-14192 (23650) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $45.45 | $45.1 | -$0.35 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
AB ABC12345654321<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $65.44 | $10.7 | -$14.78 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $16.22 | $1.18 | +$0.2 | 76% 11358-3527 (14885) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $1.81 | $0.71 | -$1.1 | 36% 16083-28096 (44179) |
Invested
$624.09
Value
$125.92
PnL
-$3.87
Record
42%
9966-13874 (23840)
Invested
$108.08
Value
$104.81
PnL
-$3.27
Record
40%
9458-14192 (23650)
Invested
$45.45
Value
$45.1
PnL
-$0.35
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
Invested
$65.44
Value
$10.7
PnL
-$14.78
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$16.22
Value
$1.18
PnL
+$0.2
Record
76%
11358-3527 (14885)
Invested
$1.81
Value
$0.71
PnL
-$1.1
Record
36%
16083-28096 (44179)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.