Will Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2026 AFC North?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 68¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 18, 2027

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Mon, Jan 18, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$16.06

Smart Money Entry

78.4¢ → 67.5¢

-14% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$984.88

Total Shares1,421

Combined PnL-$201.33

Yes5 traders

Total Value$341.23

Total Shares1,089

Combined PnL+$217.39

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

539h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DO donthackme	Noavg 91¢	$9.1	$341.35	-$85	73% 12591-4594 (17185)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 64¢	$283.1	$286.78	+$23.5	45% 2406-2976 (5382)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 79.4¢	$572.2	$175.68	-$121.22	35% 17512-32753 (50265)
TA takeormakeCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$62.12	$154.07	+$91.95	53% 4646-4137 (8783)
AB ABC12345654321	Noavg 67¢	$109.78	$113.06	+$1.98	50% 1695-1680 (3375)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 7.9¢	$22.25	$108.5	+$86.25	41% 2003-2842 (4845)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.6¢	$36.19	$73.22	+$37.03	51% 2129-2037 (4166)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 91.6¢	$51.8	$66.63	-$20.14	54% 22016-19110 (41126)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$2.26	$3.58	+$1.32	43% 2142-2793 (4935)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$1.02	$1.86	+$0.84	50% 20113-20444 (40557)
macrosteaks<$100	Noavg 91¢	$1.82	$1.38	-$0.44	55% 3434-2832 (6266)

donthackme

Invested

$9.1

Value

$341.35

PnL

-$85

Record

73%

12591-4594 (17185)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$283.1

Value

$286.78

PnL

+$23.5

Record

45%

2406-2976 (5382)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$572.2

Value

$175.68

PnL

-$121.22

Record

35%

17512-32753 (50265)

takeormakeCTR

Yes

Invested

$62.12

Value

$154.07

PnL

+$91.95

Record

53%

4646-4137 (8783)

ABC12345654321

Invested

$109.78

Value

$113.06

PnL

+$1.98

Record

50%

1695-1680 (3375)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$22.25

Value

$108.5

PnL

+$86.25

Record

41%

2003-2842 (4845)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.19

Value

$73.22

PnL

+$37.03

Record

51%

2129-2037 (4166)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$51.8

Value

$66.63

PnL

-$20.14

Record

54%

22016-19110 (41126)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.26

Value

$3.58

PnL

+$1.32

Record

43%

2142-2793 (4935)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.02

Value

$1.86

PnL

+$0.84

Record

50%

20113-20444 (40557)

macrosteaks<$100

Invested

$1.82

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$0.44

Record

55%

3434-2832 (6266)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

539h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.