Will Pierre Alain Schnegg win the Swiss Federal Council by-election?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 80¢ · $96 held · ends Dec 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$96.3
$1.03
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 78.8¢ | $60.11 | $60.37 | +$0.26 | 41% 3040-4429 (7469) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $16 | $15.9 | -$0.1 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $15 | $15.9 | +$0.9 | 60% 18-12 (30) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $4.16 | $4.13 | -$0.03 | 38% 1223-1986 (3209) |
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.