Will Pablo Picasso's “Le Baiser” sell for between $50m and $60m at auction?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 70¢ · $167 held · ends Nov 18
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 83%
$166.92
-$0.28
69.5¢ → 69.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 70%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PI PiEDawg<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $67.68 | $65.33 | -$1.44 | 0% 0-135 (135) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $35.75 | $38.22 | +$2.47 | 67% 3785-1901 (5686) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $21.3 | $20.85 | -$0.45 | 11% 35-270 (305) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $19.38 | $18.97 | -$0.41 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $14.2 | $13.9 | -$0.3 | 51% 4240-4094 (8334) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $9.8 | $9.64 | -$0.16 | 41% 2924-4137 (7061) |
Invested
$67.68
Value
$65.33
PnL
-$1.44
Record
0%
0-135 (135)
Invested
$35.75
Value
$38.22
PnL
+$2.47
Record
67%
3785-1901 (5686)
Invested
$21.3
Value
$20.85
PnL
-$0.45
Record
11%
35-270 (305)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.38
Value
$18.97
PnL
-$0.41
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
balthazar<$100Invested
$14.2
Value
$13.9
PnL
-$0.3
Record
51%
4240-4094 (8334)
Invested
$9.8
Value
$9.64
PnL
-$0.16
Record
41%
2924-4137 (7061)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.