Will Philippines win Eurovision Asia 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 70¢ · $379 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$378.51
$23.12
73.5¢ → 70¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Mature
17h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 75.2¢ | $258.28 | $110.34 | +$22.27 | 40% 3331-4967 (8298) |
 HaradwaithARB<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $127.34 | $90.23 | +$25.04 | 38% 80-133 (213) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 27¢ | $44.31 | $49.24 | +$31.78 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 72¢ | $42.16 | $40.99 | -$6.74 | |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 73.5¢ | $85.01 | $84.48 | -$0.52 | 53% 6251-5536 (11787) |
AU auros2 | Noavg 71.3¢ | $130.56 | $79.1 | -$1.62 | 72% 72-28 (100) |
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.7¢ | $10.99 | $11.1 | +$0.11 | 8% 11-133 (144) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $0.38 | $3.27 | +$2.89 | 46% 4874-5695 (10569) |
Invested
$258.28
Value
$110.34
PnL
+$22.27
Record
40%
3331-4967 (8298)
HaradwaithARB<$100Invested
$127.34
Value
$90.23
PnL
+$25.04
Record
38%
80-133 (213)
Both legs:
Invested
$85.01
Value
$84.48
PnL
-$0.52
Record
53%
6251-5536 (11787)
Invested
$130.56
Value
$79.1
PnL
-$1.62
Record
72%
72-28 (100)
Invested
$10.99
Value
$11.1
PnL
+$0.11
Record
8%
11-133 (144)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.38
Value
$3.27
PnL
+$2.89
Record
46%
4874-5695 (10569)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.