Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (92%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Philadelphia Eagles win the 2026 NFC East?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 8.0¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 4, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$1.6K
-$720.92
25.7¢ → 8¢
-69% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Late
543h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AB ABC12345654321 | Noavg 75.5¢ | $895.46 | $1.1K | +$196 | 50% 1647-1630 (3277) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 19.8¢ | $698.72 | $318.36 | -$397.99 | 41% 1953-2759 (4712) |
 StudyPredictionCTR | Yesavg 38¢ | $380 | $86.16 | -$282.42 | 53% 4542-3955 (8497) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 35.5¢ | $312.86 | $79.18 | -$232.5 | 36% 14842-26964 (41806) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $2.22 | $3.01 | -$4.01 | 41% 1345-1906 (3251) |
Invested
$895.46
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$196
Record
50%
1647-1630 (3277)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$698.72
Value
$318.36
PnL
-$397.99
Record
41%
1953-2759 (4712)
StudyPredictionCTRInvested
$380
Value
$86.16
PnL
-$282.42
Record
53%
4542-3955 (8497)
Invested
$312.86
Value
$79.18
PnL
-$232.5
Record
36%
14842-26964 (41806)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$2.22
Value
$3.01
PnL
-$4.01
Record
41%
1345-1906 (3251)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.