Will Peter Olofsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västerbotten?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 94¢ · $4K held · ended Sep 14

Yes94¢No6¢Ended Mon, Sep 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$327.31

Smart Money Entry

85.6¢ → 94¢

+10% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,756

Combined PnL+$319.23

No2 traders

Total Value$1.51

Total Shares29

Combined PnL+$8.08

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

1422h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
paddaa	Yesavg 80.2¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$195.38	57% 872-668 (1540)
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Yesavg 86.8¢	$906.91	$982.4	+$80.39	47% 1357-1501 (2858)
WH whig	Yesavg 91.7¢	$873.41	$898.88	+$25.47	59% 422-290 (712)
AN anoin123	Yesavg 90¢	$180	$188.1	+$10.5	44% 540-681 (1221)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 85¢	$68.73	$76.05	+$7.32	77% 12720-3885 (16605)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 83.7¢	$134.39	$51.06	-$3.33	34% 19370-36924 (56294)
JA JAMJAMJAM4<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$15.4	$18.81	+$3.41	55% 3739-3059 (6798)
PMTraderAdam<$100	Yesavg 86¢	$0.98	$1.07	+$0.09	77% 857-252 (1109)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 5.8¢	$2.04	$0.89	+$8.91	40% 6562-9840 (16402)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$1.77	$0.62	-$0.83	51% 159-150 (309)

paddaa

Yes

Invested

$1,128.7

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$195.38

Record

57%

872-668 (1540)

SnapElectionAvoider

Yes

Invested

$906.91

Value

$982.4

PnL

+$80.39

Record

47%

1357-1501 (2858)

whig

Yes

Invested

$873.41

Value

$898.88

PnL

+$25.47

Record

59%

422-290 (712)

anoin123

Yes

Invested

$180

Value

$188.1

PnL

+$10.5

Record

44%

540-681 (1221)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.73

Value

$76.05

PnL

+$7.32

Record

77%

12720-3885 (16605)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$134.39

Value

$51.06

PnL

-$3.33

Record

34%

19370-36924 (56294)

JAMJAMJAM4<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.4

Value

$18.81

PnL

+$3.41

Record

55%

3739-3059 (6798)

PMTraderAdam<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.98

Value

$1.07

PnL

+$0.09

Record

77%

857-252 (1109)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$2.04

Value

$0.89

PnL

+$8.91

Record

40%

6562-9840 (16402)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Invested

$1.77

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$0.83

Record

51%

159-150 (309)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

1422h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.3%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.