Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2029?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 70¢ · $405 held · ends Jan 1, 2029
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$405.21
-$3.36
71.5¢ → 69.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Late
69h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LornaPredicts | Noavg 70.5¢ | $226.64 | $226.13 | -$0.51 | 16% 10-52 (62) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 65.2¢ | $88.14 | $89.49 | +$1.35 | 40% 3002-4411 (7413) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65.2¢ | $52.5 | $55.52 | +$3.02 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 32¢ | $35.64 | $33.97 | -$1.67 | |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $56.2 | $55.36 | -$0.83 | — 1-9 (10) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $29.79 | $27.77 | -$2.01 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $5.92 | $5.52 | -$0.4 | 35% 2886-5323 (8209) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $0.54 | $0.94 | +$0.39 | 79% 159-42 (201) |
LornaPredictsInvested
$226.64
Value
$226.13
PnL
-$0.51
Record
16%
10-52 (62)
Invested
$88.14
Value
$89.49
PnL
+$1.35
Record
40%
3002-4411 (7413)
Both legs:
Invested
$56.2
Value
$55.36
PnL
-$0.83
Record
—
1-9 (10)
Invested
$29.79
Value
$27.77
PnL
-$2.01
Record
26%
888-2504 (3392)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$5.92
Value
$5.52
PnL
-$0.4
Record
35%
2886-5323 (8209)
Invested
$0.54
Value
$0.94
PnL
+$0.39
Record
79%
159-42 (201)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.