Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 4 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 41¢ · $974 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$974.42

Combined PnL

$72.88

Smart Money Entry

23.3¢ → 40.8¢

+75% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$470.27

Total Shares1,073

Combined PnL+$104.67

No8 traders

Total Value$108.25

Total Shares186

Combined PnL-$31.79

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-53 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 81.9¢	$516.26	$395.9	+$88.93	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14.8¢	$80.6	$233.19	+$226.2
└ No leg	Noavg 81.9¢	$233.29	$162.71	-$137.28
smellyEllieCTR	Yesavg 40.7¢	$209.55	$220.72	+$11.17	50% 1010-1023 (2033)
SI singularitymanCTR	Yesavg 3.9¢	$11.54	$128.38	+$56.41	41% 144-204 (348)
LI linethCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$10.42	$81.23	+$33.24	43% 268-356 (624)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 65.6¢	$59.03	$53.37	-$5.66	47% 8378-9549 (17927)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 27.3¢	$36.08	$39.93	+$3.85	20% 2597-10290 (12887)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 88.9¢	$21.78	$13.99	-$7.79	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 82.7¢	$17.14	$11.81	-$5.3	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$41.98	$9.65	-$3.27	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$12.94	$7.99	-$4.95	31% 3488-7778 (11266)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 94¢	$9.4	$5.71	-$3.69	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$4.86	$2.87	+$0.51	32% 2522-5398 (7920)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 90¢	$4.5	$2.85	-$1.65	77% 12312-3779 (16091)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$516.26

Value

$395.9

PnL

+$88.93

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

Both legs:

Yes$80.614.8¢+$226.2

No$233.2981.9¢-$137.28

smellyEllieCTR

Yes

Invested

$209.55

Value

$220.72

PnL

+$11.17

Record

50%

1010-1023 (2033)

singularitymanCTR

Yes

Invested

$11.54

Value

$128.38

PnL

+$56.41

Record

41%

144-204 (348)

linethCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.42

Value

$81.23

PnL

+$33.24

Record

43%

268-356 (624)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$59.03

Value

$53.37

PnL

-$5.66

Record

47%

8378-9549 (17927)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.08

Value

$39.93

PnL

+$3.85

Record

20%

2597-10290 (12887)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$21.78

Value

$13.99

PnL

-$7.79

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$17.14

Value

$11.81

PnL

-$5.3

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$41.98

Value

$9.65

PnL

-$3.27

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$12.94

Value

$7.99

PnL

-$4.95

Record

31%

3488-7778 (11266)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.4

Value

$5.71

PnL

-$3.69

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$4.86

Value

$2.87

PnL

+$0.51

Record

32%

2522-5398 (7920)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$1.65

Record

77%

12312-3779 (16091)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-53 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.8%

40.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$133.52

Max Loss

-$100.00

233.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.