Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 78¢ · $785 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$784.77

Combined PnL

$60.73

Smart Money Entry

85.1¢ → 78.2¢

-8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$492.89

Total Shares601

Combined PnL-$143.87

Yes5 traders

Total Value$291.87

Total Shares1,561

Combined PnL+$204.6

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

4949h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI simpleman	Noavg 86.3¢	$431.38	$411	-$125	47% 468-530 (998)
SI SitsToPeeCTR	Yesavg 16.4¢	$85.42	$174.02	+$88.6	54% 828-711 (1539)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.4¢	$7.95	$86.84	+$78.89	34% 19439-36995 (56434)
GollumGekko<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$75.98	$63.81	-$12.17	68% 2114-998 (3112)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yes	$19.07	$19.07	+$27.39	52% 160-150 (310)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 88.5¢	$76.11	$18.08	-$6.7	17% 1362-6612 (7974)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$6.43	$6.89	+$9.73	58% 21422-15550 (36972)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.7¢	$5.05	$5.05	+$0	56% 18835-15002 (33837)

simpleman

Invested

$431.38

Value

$411

PnL

-$125

Record

47%

468-530 (998)

SitsToPeeCTR

Yes

Invested

$85.42

Value

$174.02

PnL

+$88.6

Record

54%

828-711 (1539)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.95

Value

$86.84

PnL

+$78.89

Record

34%

19439-36995 (56434)

GollumGekko<$100

Invested

$75.98

Value

$63.81

PnL

-$12.17

Record

68%

2114-998 (3112)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.07

Value

$19.07

PnL

+$27.39

Record

52%

160-150 (310)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$76.11

Value

$18.08

PnL

-$6.7

Record

17%

1362-6612 (7974)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.43

Value

$6.89

PnL

+$9.73

Record

58%

21422-15550 (36972)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.05

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

18835-15002 (33837)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

4949h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.9%

78.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.