Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 17 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Person X win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

17 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.6¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 7, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 7, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

-$42.96

Smart Money Entry

0.6¢ → 0.6¢

+3% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

17 of 17 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes17 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares948,506

Combined PnL-$42.96

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 14

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 16

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$4.2K	$3.8K	-$318.62	66% 759-388 (1147)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$520.13	$372.32	-$147.81	53% 3042-2722 (5764)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.5¢	$221.24	$240.8	+$19.57	43% 1406-1847 (3253)
Q9 Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$95.28	$196.76	+$101.48	41% 166-240 (406)
EA EatprayloveCTR	Yesavg 0.2¢	$72.31	$144.61	+$144.64	57% 766-587 (1353)
0X 0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$58.11	$120	+$61.89	64% 154-88 (242)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$3.23	$45.38	-$6.74	32% 6353-13252 (19605)
IN influenz.ethCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$3.53	$24	+$36.01	42% 10218-14190 (24408)
HolyMoses7CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$18.51	$21.7	+$3.19	53% 1603-1394 (2997)
fireponbabylonCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$10.47	$16	+$5.53	43% 369-484 (853)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.97	$13.32	+$21.65	26% 351-985 (1336)
AnjunCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$10.45	$8.89	+$14.44	55% 4999-4062 (9061)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$6.69	$8.8	+$2.11	68% 2083-974 (3057)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$13.42	$8	+$12	41% 648-925 (1573)
QualitativeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$2.91	$6	+$3.09	58% 1185-849 (2034)
CunglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$2.55	$5.1	+$2.55	63% 677-399 (1076)
Gr33dCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.94	$4	+$2.06	79% 2712-700 (3412)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR

Yes

Invested

$4,166.97

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$318.62

Record

66%

759-388 (1147)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$520.13

Value

$372.32

PnL

-$147.81

Record

53%

3042-2722 (5764)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$221.24

Value

$240.8

PnL

+$19.57

Record

43%

1406-1847 (3253)

Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR

Yes

Invested

$95.28

Value

$196.76

PnL

+$101.48

Record

41%

166-240 (406)

EatprayloveCTR

Yes

Invested

$72.31

Value

$144.61

PnL

+$144.64

Record

57%

766-587 (1353)

0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR

Yes

Invested

$58.11

Value

$120

PnL

+$61.89

Record

64%

154-88 (242)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.23

Value

$45.38

PnL

-$6.74

Record

32%

6353-13252 (19605)

influenz.ethCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.53

Value

$24

PnL

+$36.01

Record

42%

10218-14190 (24408)

HolyMoses7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.51

Value

$21.7

PnL

+$3.19

Record

53%

1603-1394 (2997)

fireponbabylonCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.47

Value

$16

PnL

+$5.53

Record

43%

369-484 (853)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.97

Value

$13.32

PnL

+$21.65

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

AnjunCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.45

Value

$8.89

PnL

+$14.44

Record

55%

4999-4062 (9061)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.69

Value

$8.8

PnL

+$2.11

Record

68%

2083-974 (3057)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.42

Value

PnL

+$12

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

QualitativeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.91

Value

PnL

+$3.09

Record

58%

1185-849 (2034)

CunglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.55

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$2.55

Record

63%

677-399 (1076)

Gr33dCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.94

Value

PnL

+$2.06

Record

79%

2712-700 (3412)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

17 of 17 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 14

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 16

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.7%

0.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5913.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

6013.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.