Will Person N win the 2027 French presidential election?

18 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $43K held · ends Apr 19, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Mon, Apr 19, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$43.4K

Combined PnL

$10.1K

Smart Money Entry

76¢ → 97.7¢

+28% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 18 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No18 traders

Total Value$43.4K

Total Shares44,621

Combined PnL+$10.1K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 75.1¢	$13.4K	$17.3K	+$3.9K	53% 1595-1413 (3008)
AH aHjCz	Noavg 91.5¢	$5.8K	$6.2K	+$359.5	25% 1194-3512 (4706)
TO Tokor	Noavg 8.8¢	$550.78	$5.0K	+$4.4K	49% 77-79 (156)
Tigerofthehood	Noavg 93.7¢	$18.7K	$4.9K	+$789.91	— 0-1 (1)
LA lastminwin	Noavg 95.2¢	$4.8K	$4.9K	+$100	50% 14-14 (28)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Noavg 95.2¢	$3.0K	$2.7K	+$146.65	— 2-4 (6)
JO JordanMooney	Noavg 87.2¢	$756.75	$843.71	+$86.96	— 9-0 (9)
VI VictorLudorum	Noavg 87.7¢	$610.96	$677.07	+$66.1	— 0-13 (13)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 64.2¢	$317.45	$479.14	+$161.69	40% 3001-4411 (7412)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 92¢	$131.3	$126.36	+$4.98	— 0-12 (12)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 91.5¢	$84.23	$89.42	+$5.2	86% 32-5 (37)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 91¢	$83.11	$88.76	+$5.65	30% 184-420 (604)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$66.87	$67.75	+$0.88	35% 2865-5318 (8183)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 91¢	$52.83	$56.42	+$3.6	35% 160-299 (459)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 91¢	$47.32	$50.54	+$3.22	32% 174-367 (541)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 94.1¢	$33.13	$32.08	+$1.81	— 1-9 (10)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 91¢	$23.66	$25.27	+$1.61	36% 499-889 (1388)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 91.4¢	$5.55	$5.9	+$0.35	29% 165-404 (569)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$13,357.69

Value

$17.3K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

53%

1595-1413 (3008)

aHjCz

Invested

$5,804.49

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$359.5

Record

25%

1194-3512 (4706)

Tokor

Invested

$550.78

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$4.4K

Record

49%

77-79 (156)

Tigerofthehood

Invested

$18,739.99

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$789.91

Record

—

0-1 (1)

lastminwin

Invested

$4,760

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$100

Record

50%

14-14 (28)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Invested

$2,952.37

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$146.65

Record

—

2-4 (6)

JordanMooney

Invested

$756.75

Value

$843.71

PnL

+$86.96

Record

—

9-0 (9)

VictorLudorum

Invested

$610.96

Value

$677.07

PnL

+$66.1

Record

—

0-13 (13)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$317.45

Value

$479.14

PnL

+$161.69

Record

40%

3001-4411 (7412)

WarriorH

Invested

$131.3

Value

$126.36

PnL

+$4.98

Record

—

0-12 (12)

korda77<$100

Invested

$84.23

Value

$89.42

PnL

+$5.2

Record

86%

32-5 (37)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$83.11

Value

$88.76

PnL

+$5.65

Record

30%

184-420 (604)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$66.87

Value

$67.75

PnL

+$0.88

Record

35%

2865-5318 (8183)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$52.83

Value

$56.42

PnL

+$3.6

Record

35%

160-299 (459)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$47.32

Value

$50.54

PnL

+$3.22

Record

32%

174-367 (541)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$33.13

Value

$32.08

PnL

+$1.81

Record

—

1-9 (10)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$23.66

Value

$25.27

PnL

+$1.61

Record

36%

499-889 (1388)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.55

Value

$5.9

PnL

+$0.35

Record

29%

165-404 (569)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 18 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.