Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Person E win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?
11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 1.4¢ · $292 held · ended Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
11
Yes 100%
$291.63
$0
2.6¢ → 1.4¢
-47% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
11 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forgotmydinnerCTR | Yesavg 4.2¢ | $250 | $250 | +$0 | 23% 102-337 (439) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $21 | $21 | +$0 | 72% 13908-5278 (19186) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $15.74 | $15.74 | +$0 | 78% 12472-3601 (16073) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $3.19 | $3.19 | +$0 | 35% 18059-33813 (51872) |
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.85 | $0.85 | -$0 | 43% 3158-4259 (7417) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.55 | $0.55 | +$0 | 32% 2469-5347 (7816) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.3 | $0.3 | +$0 | 52% 6246-5776 (12022) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 59% 11786-8040 (19826) |
AK akrollCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 32% 440-926 (1366) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 43% 3101-4154 (7255) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 42% 6979-9779 (16758) |
Invested
$250
Value
$250
PnL
+$0
Record
23%
102-337 (439)
Invested
$21
Value
$21
PnL
+$0
Record
72%
13908-5278 (19186)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$15.74
Value
$15.74
PnL
+$0
Record
78%
12472-3601 (16073)
Invested
$3.19
Value
$3.19
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
18059-33813 (51872)
Invested
$0.85
Value
$0.85
PnL
-$0
Record
43%
3158-4259 (7417)
Invested
$0.55
Value
$0.55
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
2469-5347 (7816)
Invested
$0.3
Value
$0.3
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
6246-5776 (12022)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
11786-8040 (19826)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
440-926 (1366)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
3101-4154 (7255)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
6979-9779 (16758)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.