Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Brian Bengs win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 6.3¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 50%
$1.4K
$62.32
6.1¢ → 6.3¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 6%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
492h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BigRabbitCTR | Yesavg 6¢ | $600.5 | $640.85 | +$55.44 | 40% 704-1059 (1763) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 94¢ | $339.95 | $337.75 | -$2.2 | 53% 6686-5884 (12570) |
CO cocococococoCTR | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $193.39 | $201.92 | +$11.7 | 52% 1665-1534 (3199) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 6.4¢ | $112.99 | $109.82 | -$3.17 | 36% 16042-28051 (44093) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93.2¢ | $47.41 | $47.5 | +$0.12 | 56% 14220-11020 (25240) |
 TBill1<$100 | Noavg 92.1¢ | $27.63 | $28.02 | +$0.42 | 45% 154-187 (341) |
BigRabbitCTRInvested
$600.5
Value
$640.85
PnL
+$55.44
Record
40%
704-1059 (1763)
Invested
$339.95
Value
$337.75
PnL
-$2.2
Record
53%
6686-5884 (12570)
Invested
$193.39
Value
$201.92
PnL
+$11.7
Record
52%
1665-1534 (3199)
Invested
$112.99
Value
$109.82
PnL
-$3.17
Record
36%
16042-28051 (44093)
Invested
$47.41
Value
$47.5
PnL
+$0.12
Record
56%
14220-11020 (25240)
TBill1<$100Invested
$27.63
Value
$28.02
PnL
+$0.42
Record
45%
154-187 (341)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.