Will Person 54 be the next Speaker of the Knesset?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 50¢ · $1K held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$1.0K
$1.0K
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI Bigggggggg | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $8.05 | $495 | +$486.95 | 52% 1614-1484 (3098) |
 balthazar | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $4.19 | $257.99 | +$253.79 | 47% 4803-5424 (10227) |
GO godblessme2026 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $3.36 | $206.77 | +$203.41 | 26% 116-337 (453) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.73 | $45 | +$44.27 | 30% 2939-6893 (9832) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.49 | $29.92 | +$29.43 | 40% 3231-4852 (8083) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.11 | $7 | +$6.89 | 35% 512-942 (1454) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.07 | $4 | +$3.93 | 37% 3439-5885 (9324) |
Invested
$8.05
Value
$495
PnL
+$486.95
Record
52%
1614-1484 (3098)
balthazarInvested
$4.19
Value
$257.99
PnL
+$253.79
Record
47%
4803-5424 (10227)
Invested
$3.36
Value
$206.77
PnL
+$203.41
Record
26%
116-337 (453)
Invested
$0.73
Value
$45
PnL
+$44.27
Record
30%
2939-6893 (9832)
Invested
$0.49
Value
$29.92
PnL
+$29.43
Record
40%
3231-4852 (8083)
Invested
$0.11
Value
$7
PnL
+$6.89
Record
35%
512-942 (1454)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$0.07
Value
$4
PnL
+$3.93
Record
37%
3439-5885 (9324)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.